Predictions are fun.
But I’m no psychic. At least, not according to my past attempts at making predictions. Or, perhaps, given I’m not 100% wrong 100% of the time, I can say I’m halfway there.
Last year I made some pretty audacious prediction on the direction of Linden Lab in the future, and some of them were pretty “out there” and shockingly, some have come to pass. In this post here, where I pondered the future of my favorite online place, I wondered where we might be in 2015 and quite surprisingly have found that in a mere 11 months since those late night blog ramblings, in some instances, we’re already there or are close to that destination.
A lot of speculation has been made about Linden Labs new experience, which is currently shrouded in secrecy. Some have suspected that it’s a mobile application, others thought that with CEO Rod Humbles background it may be a new gaming experience, or an addition to Second Life. I find it interesting that this revelation comes on the heels of Dizzy Banjo’s guest post on New World Notes suggesting that Second Life needed to branch out rather than continue to grow roots. Ultimately saying they needed a new product to ensure sustainability and longevity of the current product. I read that entry and seriously considered the concept, and eventually concluded myself that Dizzy was absolutely right. Zynga didn’t stop at Farmville. Blizzard didn’t stop at World Of Warcraft. Linden Lab has gone, in gaming terms, an epic 9 years without a new product. While Second Life has indeed evolved quickly and provided more bang for your buck, it does seem true that it has reached a crescendo at some point, slipping in – and then out of mainstream consciousness back in the hype of 2007.
Second Life has a stigma. Yeah, It infuriates me, I’ll admit it. Everything from Life 2.0 to National Geographic has focused on the sensational and salacious. That is is how most most mainstream has come to define SL, by what they’ve seen, read or heard on television. It’s the nature of our culture, I suppose. The gawker in us. It’s been tough to redefine Second Life, because, as I mentioned before, it lost it’s identity and was instead assigned one by the media… that’s what the mainstream ran with as it made far more interesting documentaries and news articles. Forget that the underbelly of it makes up roughly 2% of the whole organism that is the virtual landscape. But we love to turn up our noses at the first opportunity, especially in America. Ask the commoner on the street what they know of Amsterdam and they’ll likely respond that it’s full of marijuana addicts and uncontrolled drugs. That’s what they’ve heard. That’s what Fox News reports. That’s what our American filmmakers make docu-style films about. That’s also an absolute falsity. In fact, when polled, more Americans have admitted to marijuana usage than Dutch citizens. More people in the USA are treated for drug addiction each year than in Holland by a whopping number. but, we know it as that “place” where drugs are allegedly rampant. And San Francisco is that “gay city” and Mormons “all have 15 wives.” Wrong, wrong wrong. But nobody cares. They don’t care to be re-informed, or to bother investigating for themselves. They’d rather turn up their snout and curl their upper lip in disagreeable disgust. This is why Second Life is “that Sex Palace.” And we’ll be hard pressed to ever change that image.
It makes perfect sense that Linden Lab would devote some resources into company growth rather than platform growth. I’m sure they’re not abandoning Second Life, after all, despite the misgivings some may have, the people who know better have still made it a very lucrative product for the company. By any measure, Second Life, to even exist as an online platform after nine years is a triumph, a success story! Consider that Blue Mars folded almost immediately after release, as, ahem, I predicted here. There.com, once the only comparable platform (Very loosely) to Second Life closed it’s doors in 2010 after 7 years in operation. Raph Kosters other opus, Metaplace, closed after just 3 years, but went on to redefine itself as a development platform for facebook which met with success, as some of the products developed on it were acquired by Playdom. Second Life is far from floundering, it stands quite strong to this day and has yet to find a worthy opponent or comparable, even with so many offshoots built of the open source, everything else pales in comparison. The reality of Second Lifes Virtual Reality, despite what television says, is more magic than mayhem. But, it’s been branded, quite like a cattle, or a regrettable tattoo you got when you were drunk of some ex boyfriends name. It’s hard to wipe off.
But for a moment, taking a look at the net culture of today (not 8 years ago) we see that so much has changed during Second Life’s own life. Social Media has been introduced in a booming way. Online gamers aren’t just 19 year old nerds with no life, they’re Mothers and Grandmothers. They have a web identity, an avatar, and they’re leveling! But they’re on Facebook and Pogo and not in Second Life. That still staggers me. I’ve often wondered why anyone would choose, specifically, to have an experience in a 2-D flash game and forgo the beauty of Second Lifes 3-D possibilities. And therein, my friend, also lies the answer. Second Life isn’t an experience. You, the user, have to self motivate to create the experience of what you want it to be, yourself. For many, perhaps too many. it’s too much to wrap their head around.
For example. Tomorrow you can go to Wiffelpuff, Indiana in the USA.
Why? You don’t know.
What will you do when you get there? You have no clue.
Obviously people are there. People are all over the world. Do you care?
Think the drive will be worth your time? The Magic 8 Ball is uncertain.
Instead you’ll see what’s on televison. Easier.
Second Life isn’t easy. It’s not a game, but it can be. It’s not a social network until you build your friends list. In truth, it’s everything you want it to be, but the challenge is making it embody that, and that task is monumental for a user. Said it before, there is no bridge between install and experience. It’s the psychological hurdles that the user can’t overcome. A great many simply don’t know what it’s for.
If indeed Linden Lab is creating something new, they’ve got 8 tremendous years of learning under their belt, and a captain at the helm with a firm hand on net culture. We users who have adopted it, myself included, need to let go of what we want Second Life to be, because each person you ask has different benchmark, and very different expectations and demands which makes us the most challenging customers to satisfy. Every one of us has an intention, a goal, and most of us with an opinion think nothing of flapping our lips (Guilty!) to tell them whats wrong, how to fix it and where to take it. That is because Second Life has achieved something that few other platform has with the user that have adopted it; It’s become personal. Personal for that singer giving concerts; That dressmaker slaving away in photoshop to pay their rent; For that developer who created that hot new product; For that teacher; That charity. Our world, our imagination. And in our world, much like our real life, we don’t bother peeking over the fence much to advocate what someone elses self-appointed purpose for it all is. Everyone is carrying their own plaquard representing what Second Life is to them. They’ve self motivated, and self advocated. Most net citizens are too busy having an intended experience to worry about making one themselves.
With the lessons under their belt, perhaps we’ll see something more expected. Second Life is revolutionary, years ahead of it’s time. The world at large has demonstrated it may not be ready, or maybe it needs to take the branding iron into it’s own hands and get a facelift to remove the wrinkles. But a new experience could be that bridge from one thing to the next. Linden Lab is the only company I can think of, reasonably, that has poised itself to introduce people to a past product by inventing a new, more accessible one to ride the coattails of. If you build it, they will come, said one famous film. In this context, they didn’t really, did they? So maybe instead of building a structure in the middle of a cornfield in Wiffelpuff, Indiana, we should build something more relatable to the general public, but this time in a populated area, with premade roads, structures and experiences! And maybe some signs pointing to Wiffelpuff..
…So the world knows we’re still an option.